Gold and Silver Price Forecast: $5,200 Breakout or Pullback Ahead

Author: Arslan Ali

Published: February 25, 2026

Key Points

• Gold rebounds from the $5,155 demand zone, targeting resistance near $5,290.
• Silver breaks $89.11 resistance, trading above $91, with momentum towards $92.96 resistance.
• Fed minutes indicate a hawkish stance, delaying rate cuts and maintaining inflation concerns.

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) started the day with a bullish sentiment but struggled to gain momentum, remaining below the $5,200 level and hovering around a monthly high of $5,198. The bullish trend is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions, which are driving investors towards safe-haven assets. Additionally, a weakening US dollar is providing further support to precious metals.

Geopolitical Tensions Support Safe-Haven Demand

Despite the Fed's hawkish stance and positive economic data, investor anxiety persists due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies. The January Fed meeting minutes revealed that officials believe it is premature to discuss interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for clear signs of declining inflation before considering any easing. This cautious approach from Fed policymakers contributes to the ongoing market unease, reinforcing gold's safe-haven appeal.

US Dollar Weakens Amid Trade Uncertainty

The US dollar has weakened as trade uncertainties loom, despite the Fed's hawkish signals and solid economic data. The imposition of a 10% tariff on non-exempt imports has raised concerns about retaliatory measures and potential disruptions to global supply chains, further pressuring the dollar and boosting gold prices. However, improved consumer confidence indicates some resilience in the US economy, even as tariff concerns weigh heavily on market sentiment.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold is currently trading around $5,191, having rebounded from the demand zone at $5,155, which aligns with the lower boundary of a rising channel. The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, indicative of an ascending trendline. The 50-period moving average at $5,120 serves as short-term support, while the 200 MA at $4,990 maintains the overall trend. A potential trade idea suggests buying on dips near $5,160, targeting $5,290 with a stop below $5,090.

Silver Price Forecast

Silver is currently trading around $91.03 after breaking above the $89.11 resistance, indicating a shift in short-term momentum favoring buyers. The price has formed a series of higher lows from a base of $72.50, suggesting a rising trendline. The 50-period moving average is positioned above the 200 MA at $85.00, supporting a bullish outlook. A trade idea for silver suggests buying if XAG/USD clears $91.20, targeting $92.90 with a stop below $88.90.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics, characterized by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, are likely to keep gold and silver prices elevated. Investors should remain vigilant for potential breakout opportunities while considering the risks associated with ongoing trade uncertainties.