Bitcoin Regains Lost Ground After 11% Drop, Eyes Key Resistance Break

Market Overview

Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound after an 11% drop triggered by geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the ongoing conflict in Iran. The cryptocurrency fell from a high of $74,071.02 on March 4 to a low of $65,618.93 on March 8. However, a recovery effort began on March 9, with Bitcoin aiming to retest the crucial resistance zone between $70,057.25 and $74,071.02.

Technical Analysis

Medium-Term Bullish Scenario

For a medium-term bullish reversal to occur, Bitcoin needs to rise and close above the previous high of $74,071.02. If this happens, it could surpass previous resistance levels, including:

• March 2024 high at $73,757.39
• October 2024 peak at $73,581.22
• 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $75,628.45
• 1 to 3 February highs at $79,160.49 - $79,369.55
• November 2025 low at $80,619.71

Should these levels be exceeded, the December lows at $83,871.20 - $84,445.35 may also be targeted.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, if geopolitical tensions escalate, Bitcoin could face further sell-offs. The recent low of $65,618.93 aligns with support levels from February, specifically:

• 12 to 19 February lows at $65,631.93 - $65,107.17
• 24 to 28 February lows at $63,046.65 - $62,527.40
• Early February trough at $60,132.75

Outlook

Short-Term Outlook

The short-term outlook remains neutral with a bullish bias as long as Bitcoin stays above the February low of $60,132.75.

Medium-Term Outlook

The medium-term outlook is neutral with a bearish bias while Bitcoin remains below the March high of $74,071.02 but above the mid-August 2024 low of $56,148.93. A failure to hold above this level could lead to a decline towards the $50,000 region and the August 2024 low at $49,217.00.