Bitcoin Will Drop Below $60K ‘Very Soon’ Amid Yen Carry Trade Risks
By Yashu Gola | Published: June 23, 2026
Key Points
- Bitcoin is retesting $60,000 as USD/JPY nears critical levels that previously triggered a carry-trade unwind.
- A sudden rebound in the yen could force leveraged traders to sell risk assets, reviving deleveraging pressure on Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin's breakdown below $63,000 sets targets at $59,000 and $55,000–$55,300.
Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a macro-driven breakdown as concerns over the yen carry trade resurface, reminiscent of the market turmoil in August 2024. As of June 23, 2026, Bitcoin has fallen to approximately $62,800, marking a 7% decline from its June highs, influenced by weakness in Asian markets and renewed fears surrounding the Japanese yen.
Yen Carry Trade Dynamics
The USD/JPY exchange rate is hovering around 161–162, close to levels that previously alarmed Japanese authorities. Past interventions, amounting to about 11.7 trillion yen (approximately $72–73 billion), have not succeeded in stabilizing the yen. A rapid increase in the yen's value could compel investors to unwind yen-funded trades, which involve borrowing yen at low rates, converting it to dollars, and investing in higher-yielding assets. This unwinding process can lead to significant asset sales to cover yen liabilities, as seen in August 2024 when Bitcoin dropped around 15% amid a broader market decline.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
Bitcoin's daily chart indicates a bearish trend, having broken below a rising parallel channel and forming a bear flag after a sharp selloff in early June. The breakdown below the flag support near $63,000 suggests a potential decline towards $55,000–$55,300. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating weak momentum. The first key support level is around $60,000–$59,000, and a daily close below this range could accelerate the downward movement.
Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
Analysts, including WealthManager, predict that Bitcoin could drop below $60,000 if the risks associated with the yen carry trade materialize. The bearish outlook could be invalidated if Bitcoin manages to reclaim the flag support and close above the 20-day EMA, with a stronger reversal signal occurring above the 50-day EMA near $68,800.