Natural Gas Price Forecast: Can Bulls Break $3.44 Ceiling?
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: June 26, 2026
Overview
The article discusses the current state of natural gas prices, focusing on the resistance levels and market trends as traders approach the 200-day moving average. The analysis highlights the potential for a breakout or a pullback based on recent price movements and technical indicators.
Current Market Conditions
Natural gas has been testing a key resistance zone near the 200-day moving average, with the trend structure showing signs of weakening. The market has maintained an upward bias, characterized by a series of higher swing lows and higher swing highs since a bullish reversal from a falling wedge pattern in late April. The recent high was established at $3.40, which serves as the initial resistance level.
Trend Analysis
Despite the upward bias, the formation of lower highs indicates downward pressure, confirming a critical resistance zone. The article notes that a lower high was established recently, and the market is at a decision point. A break below Thursday's low of $3.20 could signal a swing high, while a breakout above Friday's high near $3.38 could lead to further advances.
Resistance and Support Levels
The 200-day moving average, currently around $3.44, is identified as a significant resistance level. The article suggests that another test of this resistance could complete the counter-trend rally, potentially leading to a reassertion of the downtrend. The next key support zone is indicated by the 50-day moving average at approximately $2.98.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish outlook hinges on the inability to reclaim the 200-day moving average. A daily close above this average, followed by signs of strength, could alter the bearish scenario. However, a true bullish reversal would require natural gas prices to rise above the lower swing high from March at $3.49.
Conclusion
The article concludes that while there is potential for short-term buying pressure, the market is currently testing resistance rather than confirming a new bullish breakout. Traders are advised to monitor these key levels closely as they navigate the natural gas market.