Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rejected at 2023 High
Author: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Date: March 18, 2026
Summary
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently facing pressure as the AUD/USD currency pair has been unable to maintain gains above the 2023 high. After reaching fresh yearly highs earlier this month, the pair has encountered resistance, leading to a critical juncture where the next move is uncertain.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD has recently turned lower after testing a significant resistance zone near the 2023 high, which is crucial for the current market structure. The price is trading within a defined range for March, with resistance levels at 7158, 7208/14, and 7295, while key support levels are identified at 6913/43, 6805/11, and 6717.
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
In the previous month, the AUD/USD was noted to be trading into multi-month uptrend resistance, with a significant drop of over 2.8% from the February high. However, it managed to recover and reach new yearly highs, only to falter again at the uptrend resistance. The focus is now on a potential breakout in the coming days, as the long-bias remains vulnerable while below the 2023 swing high at 7158.
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Market Outlook
The current price action shows AUD/USD trading in the middle of a multi-week range, with recent recovery attempts stalling at the March open. Key support is located at 6913/43, which is critical for determining the next direction. A breach below this level could indicate a more significant pullback within the broader uptrend.
Conversely, a daily close above the 2023 high would expose further resistance at 7208/14, which is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the broader 2021 decline. If this level is reached, it could lead to an accelerated advance towards subsequent resistance levels at the 2019 high and the 61.8% extension of the November advance.
Conclusion
In summary, AUD/USD is currently trading within the monthly opening range, just below uptrend resistance. The bulls remain vulnerable while below 7158, and losses should be limited to 6913 if the pair is to head higher. The upcoming FOMC rate decision is a key event to watch, as it may influence market sentiment and the direction of the AUD/USD pair.
For further insights, readers are encouraged to review the latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at longer-term technical trade levels.