Market Summary - Week Ahead
Published: March 09, 2026
Overview
The recent week has been heavily influenced by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran tensions, which have significantly impacted energy prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil transport, remains largely closed, leading to a surge in oil prices.
Market Movements
US Dollar Index
The USD Index experienced its largest weekly gain since President Trump's second inauguration, reaching a high of 99.68, up 1.4% for the week. This increase is attributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets and the petrodollar system, as rising oil prices bolster the dollar's value.
Oil Prices
WTI crude oil and Brent crude saw remarkable increases of 35% and 27% respectively last week, marking the largest weekly gains on record for WTI and the biggest for Brent since early 2020. As of the latest trading, WTI and Brent are trading near highs last seen during the 2022 Ukraine invasion, with prices touching $119.50.
Gold and Stock Markets
Gold prices fluctuated, falling 4.4% on Tuesday but recovering slightly later in the week. The US stock market faced declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 3.2% by the week's end. The correlation between stocks and gold has been moderately positive during periods of market stress.
US Employment Data
The US economy reported a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, a significant drop from January's revised figures. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.0%. Wage growth remained steady, but the overall employment picture raised concerns about the labor market's health.
Inflation Outlook
Attention is now shifting to upcoming US inflation data, with the February CPI report due on Wednesday and the January PCE inflation release on Friday. Economists expect core CPI inflation to remain stable, while PCE inflation is anticipated to show a slight deceleration. The implications of rising energy prices on inflation are a key concern for market participants.
Key Data Releases This Week
- UK GDP data for January - Expected growth of 0.1%
- Canadian employment data for February - Unemployment forecast to rise to 6.7%
- US GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 - Expected annualized growth of 1.4%
- US JOLTS job openings data for January - Expected decrease to 6.5 million