AUD/USD Forecast: Trade Surplus Helps, But 0.71015 Must Hold
Author: Cedric Thompson
Published: June 05, 2026
Key Points
- The medium-term structure for AUD/USD remains bullish, although short-term momentum is cooling.
- Australia's goods trade balance has shifted to a surplus of A$4.1791 billion, supporting the Australian dollar (AUD).
- Current market dynamics show mixed performance for AUD against other currencies.
Market Overview
During the latest trading session, AUD/USD has shown marginal gains, up 0.13%. However, the AUD is down against the Euro (EUR) and British Pound (GBP), indicating that the strength is more a result of USD and JPY weakness rather than a robust performance by the AUD itself.
Trade Surplus Impact
Recent data indicates a significant turnaround in Australia's trade balance, moving from a deficit of A$1.024 billion to a surplus of A$1.791 billion. This positive shift, although slightly below forecasts, is expected to provide some support for the AUD/USD pair.
Technical Analysis
AUD/JPY Performance
The AUD/JPY pair is holding up better, with the Renko chart indicating an upward trend supported by dynamic moving averages (MAs). However, momentum is declining, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Z-Score SMA trends.
AUD/USD Resistance Levels
For AUD/USD, both the 21-EMA and 50-SMA are acting as resistance, with current prices around 0.7125. The pair remains above the long-term 500-SMA, but the cooling momentum suggests a potential need for a retest of this support level before any significant upward movement can occur.
Conclusion
The current trend for AUD/USD is bullish, but the critical support level at 0.71015 must hold. If this level fails, a reevaluation of the medium-term outlook for AUD/USD will be necessary. Traders should monitor the market closely as conditions evolve.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels: 0.6833, 0.71015, 0.70720
Resistance Levels: 0.72715, 0.74070