Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: XAUUSD Awaits Breakout, XAGUSD Holds Bullish Structure
Published: July 09, 2025
Market Overview
Gold (XAUUSD) has recently experienced a decline due to a strong rebound in the US dollar index, following the announcement of new tariffs by US President Donald Trump. The tariffs, which range from 25% to 40% on 14 countries, have created economic uncertainties, contributing to elevated volatility in the gold market. Despite the bearish pressure on gold prices, the underlying demand remains robust, with significant inflows into gold ETFs and purchases by the People’s Bank of China.
Gold Price Analysis
Current Trends
Gold is currently consolidating at the edge of an ascending triangle pattern. The price has closed below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), increasing the risk of a breakdown. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the mid-level, indicating potential for further correction. A breakout above $3,430 could signal a strong upward move, while a drop below $3,250 may lead to further downside.
Technical Indicators
- Daily Chart: Consolidation within an ascending triangle.
- 4-Hour Chart: Price fluctuating above $3,250, indicating indecision.
Silver Price Analysis
Current Trends
Silver (XAGUSD) is consolidating above the $35 level, forming a cup pattern that suggests bullish price action. A breakout above $37 could trigger a significant upward movement, while a drop below $33.60 may indicate further downside potential.
Technical Indicators
- Daily Chart: Formation of an Adam and Eve pattern followed by a cup pattern.
- 4-Hour Chart: Bullish momentum above $34.50, with multiple rebounds indicating strength.
US Dollar Index Analysis
The US Dollar Index is rebounding from the 96.50 level but remains under bearish pressure. The index is trading within a descending channel, and as long as it stays below the 100.50 level, bearish trends are likely to continue.
Technical Indicators
- Daily Chart: Rebound from oversold conditions.
- 4-Hour Chart: Consolidation near the trendline of the descending channel.
Conclusion
While gold prices are currently under pressure due to a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, the long-term demand for gold remains strong, supported by institutional investments. The upcoming FOMC minutes and US unemployment claims will be critical in determining the next moves for both gold and silver prices.