Gold and Silver Price Forecast: January 2026
Published: January 1, 2026
Market Overview
Gold closed near $4,310 on December 31, 2025, as the market paused for the New Year holiday. The price movement reflects positioning following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) December meeting minutes rather than new price discovery.
Federal Reserve's Influence
The FOMC minutes revealed a divided Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for continued rate cuts after three reductions in 2025, while others see potential for further easing if inflation trends downward. This lack of consensus has hindered gold's short-term momentum, despite a remarkable 64% gain in 2025, marking its strongest annual performance in decades.
Safe-Haven Demand
Safe-haven demand continues to be a significant long-term support for gold. The ongoing global security tensions are driving investors towards gold as a protective asset, even as year-end profit-taking occurs in a thinner market.
Central Bank Buying
Central bank purchases have bolstered the long-term trend for gold. The consistent demand from central banks and the stability of gold-backed ETFs have helped absorb volatility and maintain prices above key long-term averages.
Short-Term Forecast
As markets reopen, gold is expected to hold near $4,310. A breakout above $4,360 could target $4,400 to $4,450, while a drop below $4,280 risks a decline to $4,255.
Technical Analysis for Gold
Gold closed around $4,323 on December 31. The price is currently above a guiding trendline established since mid-December. A clear push above $4,360 could initiate upward movement, while a break below $4,280 may lead to a drop to $4,255. A suggested trading strategy is to buy above $4,280 with a target of $4,400 and a stop loss around $4,240.
Silver Price Forecast
Silver closed at $71.64 on December 31, remaining unchanged due to the market closure. The price is just below the 50-day EMA at approximately $72.90, with the 200-day EMA at $68.00 providing a solid support base. The RSI has dipped into the lower 40s, indicating a cooling market but not a crash.
Technical Outlook for Silver
A breakout above $72.90 could propel silver prices to the $75-$78 range, while a drop below $70.00 could signal a significant pullback to $68.05. A recommended trading strategy is to go long near the $70-$71 mark, aiming for profits at $75, with a stop-loss just below $68.
Conclusion
As the market resumes after the New Year, traders will closely monitor Federal Reserve guidance, real interest rates, and geopolitical developments to determine gold and silver's next moves.