Market Analysis Summary - Week of 20 April 2026

Summary

Last week, optimism surrounding a ceasefire in the Middle East propelled the S&P 500 to an all-time high, while inflation data and earnings reports are set to influence market momentum in the coming week.

What Happened Last Week

• Iran Talks Lift Risk Appetite: A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, despite ongoing tensions with Iran, led to a 12% increase in the S&P 500, reaching 7,126. Brent crude oil prices fell below $90 a barrel before rebounding due to renewed shipping restrictions.
• Wholesale Prices Ease Inflation Fears: The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March rose by 0.5%, below the expected 1.1%, indicating that the energy shock has not yet translated into broader inflation concerns.
• China GDP Beats, but Momentum Fades: China's economy grew by 5.0% YoY in Q1 2026, but March data showed a slowdown in retail sales and industrial production, raising concerns about recovery prospects.
• Australia Jobs Steady, Hike Bets Rise: Australia's unemployment rate remained steady, leading to increased expectations for a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Markets in Focus

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached new highs, with the latter experiencing a 13-session winning streak. However, market breadth remains narrow, with many stocks below their 200-day moving average. Citigroup reported strong earnings, while other banks also performed well, though Wells Fargo fell short of expectations.

The Hang Seng Index showed more cautious gains, with limited investor conviction despite some positive economic indicators from China. The IPO market remains active, highlighted by Manycore Tech's successful debut.

The Japanese yen fluctuated amid intervention rhetoric, but the Bank of Japan's dovish stance has limited its strength.

The Week Ahead

Upcoming economic data will provide insights into the impact of geopolitical tensions on global markets. Key reports include:

• US retail sales for March, with expectations of a pullback.
• Inflation readings from the UK and Japan ahead of central bank meetings.
• Flash PMI readings from major economies to gauge business activity.
• Corporate earnings from Tesla, Intel, and others, focusing on technology and consumer sectors.