Crude Oil Price Forecast: Recovery Above 200-Day Signals Upside Potential

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: February 5, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the recent performance of crude oil prices, highlighting a significant recovery above the 200-day moving average, which indicates strengthening momentum and potential for further price increases. The analysis focuses on technical indicators and price patterns that suggest a bullish outlook for crude oil.

Key Points

• Recent Price Action: Crude oil has rebounded from a low of $55.82 in early January, establishing a higher low at $61.18. This recovery coincided with a reclaim of the 200-day moving average, suggesting a shift in market sentiment.
• Technical Indicators: The article notes that the recovery above the 200-day average is a critical milestone, as prices had been trading below this level since early August. The daily closing price above this average confirms the strength of the current rally.
• Fibonacci Levels: The recent pullback completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of an internal upswing, reinforcing the bullish setup. The next target is the recent high of $66.57, with potential for further gains if momentum continues.
• Upside Targets: The article outlines potential upside targets, including a long-term downtrend resistance line and a measured move target around $77.40, which reflects the price action from the previous rally in 2025.
• Resistance Levels: Near-term resistance is identified at $65.59 and $66.57, with further targets ranging from $67.02 to $67.83, which includes a 127.2% projected rising measured move target and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
• Weekly Analysis: The article suggests that crude oil is likely to complete the week within the previous week's price range, establishing an inside week. A breakout above the current high of $65.59 would signal further bullish momentum.

Conclusion

The analysis presented by Bruce Powers indicates a positive outlook for crude oil prices, supported by technical indicators and recent price action. Traders are advised to monitor key resistance levels and potential breakout points to capitalize on the bullish trend.

About the Author

Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having served as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.