Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Hold the Edge Ahead of Jobs Data
By Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Date: July 19, 2026
Market Overview
The Australian dollar (AUD) is entering a pivotal week as bulls maintain a slight advantage in the AUD/USD currency pair. This comes amidst mixed technical signals and a backdrop of bearish futures positioning. The upcoming employment report from Australia is anticipated to be the key event, potentially influencing the next movement of the pair.
Economic Calendar Highlights
This week is relatively quiet for AUD/USD traders, with the employment report on Thursday being the highlight. Recent data showed a decrease in unemployment to 4.4% and an increase in employment by 40.3k, primarily in part-time roles. These figures may support a mildly hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), although they are unlikely to prompt an immediate rate hike.
Market Sentiment and Performance
The Australian dollar exhibited a mixed performance against major currencies last week, gaining against safe-havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, while remaining flat against the British pound. The AUD/USD pair has seen a slight recovery, managing to stay above the critical 70 cents level.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators show a mixed outlook for AUD/USD. Although the pair has risen for three consecutive weeks, it formed a long-legged doji, indicating indecision among traders. The daily chart remains bullish, with a higher low and a bullish engulfing candle above the 200-day EMA. However, resistance at the 50-day EMA suggests that any upward movement may be limited unless a new catalyst emerges.
Futures Positioning
Futures traders have become increasingly bearish on the Australian dollar, with a notable rise in net-short positions. This trend indicates a modest deterioration in sentiment, suggesting that AUD/USD may remain rangebound unless significant new information arises.
Conclusion
As traders await the employment report, the outlook for AUD/USD remains cautiously optimistic, with bulls holding a slight edge. However, mixed signals and bearish positioning could cap any potential rallies. The 70 cents level is critical for bulls, and a sustained break above this could lead to further gains.