Why Commodities Could Be the Winning Macro Trade of the Next Decade

Author: Phil Carr
Published: April 17, 2026

Overview

The article discusses a significant shift in market dynamics, suggesting that the next decade may favor commodities over traditional financial assets. This change is attributed to a breakdown of the previous economic regime characterized by low inflation, cheap capital, and globalization.

Changing Market Dynamics

Historically, commodities were viewed as cyclical trades, overshadowed by equities and bonds. However, the emergence of a more unstable and inflation-prone environment, driven by factors such as de-globalization, geopolitical conflicts, and fiscal overspending, is reshaping this perspective. The author argues that hard assets are becoming increasingly valuable as the global economic landscape evolves.

Evidence of Change

Since early 2025, commodities have outperformed traditional asset classes. Key indicators include:

• Gold: Continues to reach record prices.
• Copper: Prices are surging due to structural supply deficits.
• Energy Markets: Remain sensitive to geopolitical disruptions and underinvestment.

Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club, emphasizes that this is not merely a cyclical rebound but a structural repricing of real assets.

The Multipolar World and Resource Value

The article highlights how the global economic order is shifting towards a multipolar world where countries prioritize resource security over efficiency. This has led to hoarding, stockpiling, and securing bilateral supply agreements, making access to commodities a strategic asset.

Key growth themes, such as AI infrastructure and electrification, are heavily commodity-intensive, further increasing demand for these resources.

Supply Squeezes as Catalysts

The bullish case for commodities is not just about rising demand but also about potential supply squeezes. Years of underinvestment in mining and energy sectors mean that new supply cannot meet future demand, particularly for copper and gold. Hansen warns that the next decade may be characterized by repeated supply squeezes across various commodities.

Investment Implications

As inflation becomes less predictable and traditional hedges lose reliability, commodities are emerging as a viable investment option. They offer direct exposure to inflation protection and strategic scarcity. Hansen cautions that treating hard assets merely as hedges could be a significant mistake; they should be viewed as leadership assets in the coming economic landscape.

Despite recent gains, commodities remain under-owned, suggesting a potential rush into these assets as the market recognizes their value. This could lead to rapid repricing, making early investment crucial.

Conclusion

The article concludes that the window for investing in commodities may not remain open for long. As the market shifts towards recognizing the importance of hard assets, those who act quickly may benefit significantly from the upcoming macro rotation.