Market Analysis Summary: FTSE 100, EUR/USD Rally as WTI Drops on US-Iran Deal Hopes

Author: Axel Rudolph, Market Analyst

Publication Date: Monday, 15 June 2026

Macro Update

Global markets experienced a significant rally following the announcement of a preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran, aimed at resolving ongoing conflicts and reopening the Straits of Hormuz. A memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed in Switzerland, initiating a 60-day ceasefire period.

Market Reactions

• Brent Crude Oil: Prices fell to a two-month low, dropping below $83 per barrel, as investors adjusted their positions following the easing of geopolitical tensions. US crude oil also declined to $80.50.
• Asian Equities: Major indices saw strong gains, with Japan's Nikkei rising by 4.9% and South Korea's Kospi climbing 5.4%. European markets were poised for a higher open, with DAX futures up 1.7%, FTSE futures gaining 0.7%, and S&P 500 futures increasing by 1.2%.
• US Dollar: The dollar weakened as inflation concerns diminished, with the euro rising to $1.16 and the British pound to $1.3440. The Japanese yen traded near ¥160, anticipating a potential interest rate increase from the Bank of Japan.
• Gold: Spot gold prices increased by 2% to $4,300 an ounce, marking a third consecutive day of gains, supported by lower oil prices and a softer dollar.

Central Bank Focus

Attention is shifting towards upcoming decisions from major central banks. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% during Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as chair. The Bank of England is also anticipated to keep rates steady at 3.75%.

FTSE 100 Analysis

The FTSE 100 index surged, nearly reaching its May peak at 10,573 before losing momentum. A close above this level could lead to a revisit of the 10,700 region. Conversely, a drop below the intraday low of 10,495 may close the gap with the previous high of 10,481, with minor support expected around the June 5 high of 10,415.

Short-term Outlook: Bullish while above the June 10 low at 10,125.

Medium-term Outlook: Neutral with a bullish bias while above the May 18 low at 10,113.

EUR/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of recovery, having moved above its downtrend line at $1.1596. A rise above Thursday's high at $1.1645 could lead to the 200-day simple moving average at $1.1675 and the late May high at $1.1685.

Short-term Outlook: Bullish while above $1.1500.

Medium-term Outlook: Neutral with a bearish undertone while below the late May high at $1.1645.

WTI Analysis

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is approaching its mid-April low at $78.97 per barrel. A drop below this level could open the way for a decline towards the March low at $76.73, with minor resistance at Friday's low of $83.20.

Short-term Outlook: Bearish while below the June 3 high at $97.00.

Medium-term Outlook: Neutral with a bearish bias while below the June peak at $97.00 but above the April low at $78.97.

Conclusion

The market is currently influenced by geopolitical developments and central bank policies, with a bullish sentiment prevailing in equities and currencies, while commodities like oil are experiencing downward pressure.