US Open: Blowout Payrolls Signal Slower Path for Rate Cuts?

Date: 11 February 2026

Key Takeaways

• A strong US labor market report for January has reduced expectations for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
• Index futures have gained following the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, indicating investor confidence in the US economy.
• Technology shares are leading a recovery in early trading.

Blockbuster Payrolls Report

The latest NFP report revealed an increase of 130,000 jobs, nearly double the market consensus. This figure was unexpected, as many analysts had predicted a contraction in employment, while others anticipated a modest increase. The January report is traditionally volatile due to technical adjustments, yet it indicates a resilient labor market despite recent mixed economic data. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, further supporting the strength of the labor market.

Market Reactions

In light of these buoyant figures, expectations for the Federal Reserve's next moves are shifting. Money markets are now pricing in the first rate cut for July, even as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over the Fed's leadership in June, a figure perceived to favor lower rates.

US500 Nears Record Territory

Equities have resumed their upward trend, primarily driven by optimism surrounding large-cap technology firms. The S&P 500 (US500) is approaching the 7,000-point mark, largely ignoring the reduced likelihood of immediate rate cuts in favor of a more positive outlook for US economic growth. A daily close above 7,000 could pave the way for new all-time highs, especially with Nvidia's earnings report on the horizon. Conversely, failing to maintain this level could lead to a pullback towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downward wave.

Corporate Highlights

• Nvidia: Leading the rally with over 1% gains.
• Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta: Each up approximately 0.5–0.6%.
• T-Mobile US (TMUS.US): Shares fell over 5% after missing net subscriber addition targets.
• Moderna (MRNA.US): Shares dropped nearly 10% after regulators declined to review its mRNA flu vaccine.
• Gilead Sciences (GILD.US): Stock fell over 1% as results and outlook did not meet expectations.
• Kraft Heinz (KHC.US): Shares dropped over 6% after halting plans to split into two entities.
• Ford (F.US): Saw minor gains despite a disappointing fourth-quarter performance.

Recent Market Trends

On 5 February 2026, Amazon shares tumbled 10% as investors reacted negatively to the costs associated with AI dominance. The overall market sentiment has been under pressure due to a lackluster tech earnings season, with red dominating both sides of the Atlantic.