Market Analysis Summary: Tech Leads US Stocks Higher; BoJ In Focus After Suspected Intervention
Author: Martin Lam
Date: July 31, 2026
Key Takeaways
- U.S. Q2 GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, falling short of expectations.
- June PCE Price Index experienced its first month-over-month decline in six years.
- Weaker rate-hike expectations led to a significant rally in U.S. equities.
- Gold prices rebounded above $4,100, while the dollar weakened and oil prices retreated amid U.S.–Iran tensions.
Market Focus
The primary focus today is on the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged. However, the BoJ is likely to indicate its commitment to tightening monetary policy due to yen weakness and inflationary pressures driven by Middle Eastern conflicts. Additionally, Eurozone CPI data is anticipated, with a slight rebound expected in July year-over-year figures to 2.9%. A stronger-than-expected CPI could increase the likelihood of an ECB rate hike in September.
Global Market Review (July 31, 2026)
U.S. equities surged, particularly in the technology sector, with notable rebounds in chip stocks. Microsoft saw a remarkable increase of over 15%, marking its largest one-day gain in 18 years. The Dow Jones rose by 1.19%, the S&P 500 by 1.67%, and the Nasdaq by 2.78%. Long-term U.S. yields reached 19-year highs, while the dollar weakened due to disappointing economic and inflation data. Gold prices increased by 0.92%, supported by a softer dollar and easing inflation concerns. Oil prices closed lower after volatile trading, as traders evaluated Saudi-led initiatives to enhance maritime security in the Red Sea.
Key Events Today
- 09:30 AU PPI Q2
- 09:30 CN NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI JUL
- 11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- 14:30 BoJ Press Conference
- 17:00 EU CPI Flash JUL
- 20:30 CA GDP MAY
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final JUL
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1548 / 1.1563
Support: 1.1483 / 1.1464
Eurozone Q2 GDP growth of 0.4% exceeded expectations, contributing to the rise of EUR/USD above 1.1500. Analysts suggest a breakout above 1.1550, with key resistance near 1.1600.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3510 / 1.3558
Support: 1.3399 / 1.3349
The Bank of England held rates steady, awaiting clarity on inflation impacts from the U.S.–Iran conflict. GBP/USD rose for the second consecutive day, with a bullish outlook if it holds above 1.3450.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 161.69 / 162.39
Support: 160.27 / 159.40
USD/JPY fell 2.6% amid reports of Japanese intervention, with the BoJ's decision expected to influence future movements.
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 87.31 / 90.49
Support: 80.32 / 77.19
Oil prices declined as discussions between Oman and Iran eased tensions, with analysts predicting range trading in the near term.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4117 / 4142
Support: 4038 / 4014
Gold closed above $4,100, with a bullish outlook if it maintains this level.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 52,823 / 53,061
Support: 51,830 / 51,600
The Dow rebounded over 1% following a prior decline, with a bullish bias if it breaks above 52,000.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 28,870 / 29,194
Support: 28,100 / 27,842
The Nasdaq surged, driven by strong performances from chip stocks, with a bullish outlook if it breaks above recent resistance levels.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 65,872 / 66,937
Support: 63,431 / 62,349
Bitcoin rose amid a broader risk-asset rally, though gains are capped by external factors including the Fed's stance and geopolitical tensions.
Conclusion
The market is currently influenced by a mix of economic data, geopolitical tensions, and central bank decisions. Investors are advised to stay informed on upcoming data releases and central bank communications that could impact market dynamics.