Summary of Crude Oil Major Slide and Gold Below $4000
Date: June 24, 2026
Crude Oil Market Analysis
Crude oil prices have experienced a significant decline, falling below $70 a barrel, marking a continuation of a four-day sell-off. This drop has effectively erased the gains that were previously driven by the Middle East conflict. The primary factor contributing to this decline is the advancing peace negotiations between the US and Iran, which have alleviated supply concerns in the market. As a result, oil tankers are now navigating the Strait of Hormuz with their tracking signals activated, indicating a reduced risk of attacks.
Additionally, the market is witnessing an influx of offers from the Middle East and other regions, including a surge of West African crude. A temporary waiver from the US for already-loaded Iranian oil is expected to further increase supply in an already saturated market. This shift in sentiment is reflected in Brent's prompt spread, which has transitioned into contango for the first time since the onset of the conflict, signaling a lack of concern over potential shortages.
Technical Analysis of WTI Oil
Currently, WTI crude oil prices have reverted to levels seen at the beginning of the Middle East conflict. There is a potential support zone identified between $66.50 and $67.30, which corresponds to highs from late January and February. If this support holds, a relief bounce may occur as buyers capitalize on lower prices. However, any upward movement may be short-lived, with targets around $75.00 and $79.00 being considered.
Conversely, if the support area fails, WTI oil could decline further, potentially reaching the $62.36 level, which is marked by highs and lows from earlier in the year. A breach of this level could lead to a further drop to the next support zone at $55.00, the lowest point recorded in 2025.
Gold Market Analysis
Gold prices have also seen a downturn, falling below $4,000 an ounce, nearing an eight-month low. This decline is attributed to a strengthening US dollar and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. The dollar has reached its highest level in over a year against a basket of currencies, making gold less attractive to international buyers and dampening demand.
Despite the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates in their last meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the need to combat inflation, which has led the market to anticipate potential rate hikes in September and possibly another before the year ends. Interestingly, the peace momentum between the US and Iran, which could have supported gold prices by easing inflation fears, has been overshadowed by the dollar's strength and the Fed's aggressive messaging.
Technical Analysis of Gold
The recent drop below the psychological $4,000 mark has confirmed a forthcoming lower low for gold. This movement opens the door for further declines, with the next target potentially around $3,886, which corresponds to a low from October 2025. If bearish pressure persists, the next support level may be around $3,627, marked by a low from September 2025.
To shift focus towards potential upward movement, a recovery above the $4,000 level or the $4,024 mark (the low from June 11) would be necessary. Such a move could indicate a larger correction, with a possible test of the $4,306 area, which aligns with a medium-term downside resistance line drawn from the current all-time high.