Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: Seasonal Weakness Meets Key Support
By Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Date: 18/02/2026
Current Market Overview
The Nasdaq 100 has experienced a decline of 3.3% in February, a month historically known for negative returns. This pullback is relatively modest compared to the average decline of 5% for the index during this month, suggesting that the current movement is more of a controlled correction rather than a significant downturn.
Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook
February is one of only two months that typically yield negative average returns for the Nasdaq 100. However, as the market approaches March, historical data indicates a shift towards positive returns, with a 66.7% win rate. Given that asset managers remain net-long on Nasdaq futures and positioning is not extreme, this pullback may set the stage for new highs in the upcoming months.
Technical Analysis
Monthly and Weekly Charts
The monthly chart indicates that the Nasdaq 100 is still in a solid uptrend, with the current retracement appearing shallow. The recent earnings season did not produce the anticipated disappointments, which has limited the downside potential for bearish traders. The percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages is around 50%, indicating a neutral stance for both bulls and bears.
The weekly chart shows that downside momentum is decreasing after a three-week selloff, with the 24,000 level identified as a critical support point where bulls may re-enter the market.
Daily Chart Outlook
Recent price action suggests that the Nasdaq 100 may have established a swing low, with signs of a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. The price has respected the 200-day moving average, and the previous selloff did not decisively break these long-term averages. Bullish RSI divergences and a series of higher lows above the November trough indicate that bulls may attempt to reclaim the 25,000 level and retest the previous high around 25,447.
While the potential for further volatility exists as the month-end approaches, the prevailing bias favors bullish activity as long as prices remain above the 24,000 support level. With seasonality turning more favorable in March, the Nasdaq 100 could be poised for another attempt at record highs.