Oil News: War Premium Underpins Crude Oil as Traders Await EIA After API Surge
Published: February 25, 2026, 11:57 GMT+00:00
Key Points
- WTI crude oil pulls back from a seven-month high as traders take profits ahead of the key EIA crude inventory report.
- A significant 11.43 million-barrel API build raises bearish sentiment as global supply continues to exceed demand.
- Geopolitical tensions with Iran maintain a firm risk premium under crude oil despite weakening inventory trends.
Crude Oil News
WTI Oil
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures are experiencing slight gains after reaching a seven-month high earlier in the week. The recent pullback is attributed to profit-taking and position squaring ahead of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventories report and upcoming nuclear talks between the United States and Iran.
As of 11:44 GMT, April WTI Crude Oil Futures are trading at $65.84, reflecting a modest increase of $0.21 or +0.32%.
All Eyes on the EIA Report
The EIA report, scheduled for release at 15:30 GMT, is anticipated to show a build of 1.3 million barrels of crude oil. This follows last week's report of a 2.3 million barrel decline. Historically, this period has averaged an increase of 3.1 million barrels over the past five years.
However, the news leading up to the EIA data has been bearish for oil prices, particularly following the American Petroleum Institute's (API) report of an 11.43 million barrel surge in U.S. oil stockpiles. Despite ongoing geopolitical issues supporting prices, concerns over significant inventory gains are capping potential increases as global supply continues to outpace demand.
Iran Keeps the Risk Premium Alive
Despite the recent pullback, WTI crude oil remains supported by speculators and hedgers reacting to the threat of military action between the U.S. and Iran, which could disrupt supply from the Middle East. Reports indicate that the two nations will reconvene in Geneva to discuss Iran's nuclear program, with the U.S. aiming to halt it while Iran insists on its right to maintain nuclear facilities capable of producing weapons-grade uranium.
In a recent State of the Union address, President Trump emphasized his stance against allowing Iran, labeled as the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism, to acquire nuclear weapons. This statement has helped maintain the risk premium in oil prices, although it has not spurred new buying activity.
Technical Picture: Uptrend Intact but Being Tested
From a technical standpoint, the main trend for crude oil remains upward, supported by moving averages, trend lines, and swing charts. Key support levels include the 200-day moving average at $61.01 and the 50-day moving average at $60.59, which is nearing a bullish crossover. Trend line support is currently at $64.98, and a failure to maintain this level could weaken the uptrend.
A trade above $67.28 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a drop below the nearest swing bottom at $61.76 would indicate a weakening trend.
Thursday’s Talks: The Market’s Next Flashpoint
Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming meeting on Thursday, which could be pivotal in determining whether the U.S. will take military action against Iran. The outcome of these negotiations could either lead to a breakdown in talks or a continuation, with prolonged discussions likely shifting focus back to the substantial supply buildup, potentially causing temporary weakness in oil prices.
About the Author
James Hyerczyk is a seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He has authored two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.