Bitcoin to $10K in 2026? Why Bloomberg’s Crash Thesis Looks Ultra Wrong
By Yashu Gola | Published: Feb 22, 2026
Overview
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has posited that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $10,000 by 2026, suggesting that this price point represents Bitcoin's long-term statistical center. This analysis draws comparisons between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, indicating that Bitcoin's value is heavily influenced by liquidity conditions in the market.
McGlone's Argument
McGlone argues that the price surge above $10,000 was primarily driven by extraordinary monetary expansion and speculative excess rather than any inherent value. He views Bitcoin as a high-beta asset relative to equities, suggesting that if liquidity contracts, Bitcoin could experience a disproportionate decline. He also highlights the increasing token supply in the crypto market, which he believes dilutes capital and increases market fragility.
Counterarguments
Contrary to McGlone's thesis, several factors suggest that Bitcoin may not fall to $10,000. The emergence of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has created a structural demand, with these funds holding approximately 6.9% of the total Bitcoin supply. Major institutional players, such as BlackRock, have also significantly invested in Bitcoin, adding a layer of demand that did not exist in 2019.
Additionally, public companies are holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin, further stabilizing its price. The argument that new tokens dilute Bitcoin's value is countered by the observation that during market stress, traders often move their investments from altcoins back into Bitcoin, reinforcing its status as a "crypto safe haven."
Price Predictions
While McGlone's worst-case scenario suggests a drop to $10,000, other analysts maintain that a more realistic floor for Bitcoin lies between $45,000 and $50,000, based on historical Fibonacci retracement levels. Current market conditions, including Bitcoin's long-term trendline and the 200-week EMA, indicate that a significant breakdown would need to occur for prices to approach McGlone's predicted levels.