Summary of Economic Report on EUR/USD and German Trade Surplus

Date: March 10, 2026

Overview

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a gain of approximately 0.2% following the release of trade data from Germany, which revealed an unexpected increase in the country's trade surplus. This development occurred despite a general slowdown in both imports and exports.

Key Economic Data

• Exports: In January 2026, German adjusted exports fell by 2.3%, totaling 130.5 billion euros.
• Imports: Imports decreased by 5.9%, amounting to 109.2 billion euros month-on-month.
• Trade Surplus: The trade surplus widened significantly to 21.2 billion euros, up from 17.4 billion euros in December 2025, surpassing forecasts which predicted a drop to 15.2 billion euros.

Trade Dynamics

While trade with the European Union (EU) showed signs of weakness, with exports declining by 4.8%, there was a notable increase in shipments to non-EU countries, which rose by 1.0%. This growth was primarily driven by an impressive 11.7% increase in exports to the United States. Conversely, trade with China and Russia faced significant declines, with exports to China dropping by 13.2% and imports from Russia plummeting by 20.0%.

Market Reaction

Despite initial weakness in early Asian trading, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the EMA100 (Exponential Moving Average) and returned above the 1.162 mark, reaching its highest level since March 4th, 2026.

Conclusion

The unexpected rise in Germany's trade surplus, amidst declining exports and imports, has positively influenced the EUR/USD exchange rate. This situation highlights the complexities of global trade dynamics and their impact on currency valuation.