WTI Crude Oil Bullish Breakout Analysis
By Kelvin Wong | 5 March 2026
Key Takeaways
- WTI crude oil prices have surged approximately 19% since February 26, 2026, reaching a 14-month high near $78, following a breakout from a 28-month descending resistance.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Israel strikes on Iran, have significantly contributed to this rally.
- The probability of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil trade route, has risen to over 86%, reinforcing the bullish outlook for oil prices.
- Technical analysis indicates that WTI remains bullish above a support level of $73.38, with potential targets at $80.30 and $84.55 if it breaks above $78.10.
Market Context
The analysis follows up on a previous report from February 26, 2026, which anticipated a bullish flag formation for WTI crude oil above $64.15. The recent price action confirms this expectation, with WTI breaking above a significant resistance level on March 2, 2026, amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitical Risks
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime chokepoint, responsible for about 25% of global seaborne oil trade. Recent data from Polymarket indicates that the likelihood of Iran closing this strait has reached an all-time high of 86.25%, which correlates strongly with the upward movement in WTI crude oil prices.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil is positioned for a potential breakout above $78.10. The key support level to watch is $73.38. A successful breach of $78.10 could lead to further gains towards $80.30 and $84.55. Conversely, a drop below $73.38 could trigger a corrective pullback towards $69.26 or $67.80.
The price has been oscillating within a minor ascending channel since the low on February 26, 2026, and the hourly RSI momentum indicator has shown a bullish breakout, suggesting that the short-term bullish momentum remains intact.