Morning Kickstart: Dollar Higher, Oil Rebounds as Holiday Trading Begins
Date: October 12, 2026
Author: Greg Michalowski
Market Overview
The North American trading week starts with a partial holiday, as the U.S. observes Columbus Day and Canada celebrates Thanksgiving. While U.S. stock markets remain open, the cash Treasury market is closed, leading to lighter participation across several markets. Nasdaq futures are lagging, and the U.S. dollar is higher against all major currencies except for the British pound, which remains nearly unchanged.
Currency Analysis
The U.S. dollar shows strength, particularly against the Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar, and euro. The following are the current exchange rates:
- EURUSD: 1.1174 (down 0.24%)
- USDJPY: 158.61 (up 0.19%)
- GBPUSD: 1.3230 (down 0.01%)
- USDCHF: 0.8330 (up 0.35%)
- USDCAD: 1.4265 (up 0.08%)
- AUDUSD: 0.6969 (down 0.19%)
- NZDUSD: 0.5595 (down 0.25%)
EURUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD are trading near their session lows, while USDJPY and USDCHF are near their session highs. The dollar is showing a stronger hand in the opening price action.
Stock Market Performance
U.S. stock futures are mixed, with the Dow and S&P 500 showing modest gains, while the Nasdaq 100 is down:
- Dow Industrial Average: up 56 points
- S&P 500: up 2.21 points
- Nasdaq 100: down 96 points
There is no broad agreement across the major indices as the market opens.
Treasury Yields
The U.S. cash bond market is closed today, but the closing yields from Friday, October 9, are as follows:
- 2-year: 4.7911%
- 5-year: 5.0211%
- 10-year: 5.2421%
- 30-year: 5.6001%
The 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2002 at 5.365%, impacting expectations for growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.
Commodities Update
WTI crude oil futures have rebounded to $93.04, up 1.30%, reversing earlier losses. In contrast, gold and silver prices have decreased:
- Gold: $4,171.43 (down 0.55%)
- Silver: $60.66 (down 0.20%)
- Copper: $6.7655 (up 0.26%)
- Bitcoin: $83,136 (up 0.38%)
Geopolitical Developments
Recent headlines include reports of attacks from the Houthis on Saudi airports and Aramco facilities, and a ceasefire announcement regarding the Russia-Ukraine energy situation, although further attacks have been reported.
Outlook for the Week
The holiday session precedes a busy week with major bank earnings starting Tuesday, followed by U.S. CPI on Wednesday, and PPI and retail sales on Thursday. These economic indicators will be crucial for assessing inflation and consumer demand.
Conclusion
As the market opens, traders should watch the behavior of major currency pairs, particularly EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, as they test key levels. A break beyond these levels could indicate a shift in control between buyers and sellers.