Gold Rally Driven by Iran Tensions and Tariff Ruling
By: James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 21, 2026
Key Points
- Gold prices surged due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, increasing safe-haven demand.
- A Supreme Court ruling that limited tariff powers led to a decline in the U.S. dollar, further boosting gold prices.
- Despite weak GDP data and inflation metrics, gold traders remained optimistic, ignoring bearish macroeconomic signals.
Market Overview
On Friday, spot gold prices rose significantly, closing at $5108.26, marking an increase of $111.77 or +2.24%. The rally was influenced by various factors, with traders focusing on bullish indicators while downplaying bearish ones.
U.S.-Iran Nuclear Standoff
The primary catalyst for the gold rally was the escalating U.S.-Iran nuclear standoff. The U.S. had deployed additional naval forces and warned Iran of potential military action, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset.
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to invalidate President Trump's broad tariff powers negatively impacted the dollar, making gold more appealing to international buyers. Following the ruling, Trump announced a new 10% global tariff, which traders interpreted as bullish for gold.
Economic Indicators
Gold traders largely ignored mixed economic data that suggested a lower likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Weak GDP figures and persistent inflation above the 2% target did not deter gold's upward momentum, especially after the tariff news broke.
Technical Analysis
Gold's recent high of $5108.72 is just below key resistance levels at $5119.35 and $5143.89. If the bullish momentum continues, a breakout could occur. However, a potential nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran could reverse gains, pushing prices back toward recent lows.
Conclusion
The current gold rally is heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic policy changes. Traders remain cautious, as any resolution in the U.S.-Iran situation could significantly impact gold prices and shift focus back to economic fundamentals.