Market Summary - June 30, 2026

Overview

Asian equity markets concluded the quarter with significant gains, buoyed by positive sentiment from Wall Street, particularly in the semiconductor sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose nearly 1.5%, marking its strongest quarterly performance in almost 17 years. This optimism extended to futures markets, indicating potential further gains in U.S. and European equities.

Key Highlights

• South Korea's Market Performance: South Korea's Kospi Index was the top-performing major equity market, increasing by 2.9% during the session. AI-related semiconductor stocks, particularly Samsung and SK Hynix, saw substantial gains, with Samsung's year-to-date return exceeding 100% and SK Hynix's soaring nearly 240%.
• Japanese Yen Weakness: The Japanese yen weakened beyond 162 against the U.S. dollar, reaching its lowest level since 1986. This decline supports Japanese exporters but raises import costs and household purchasing power concerns, increasing political pressure on the government.
• Brent Crude Oil: Brent crude traded around $72.50 per barrel, on track for its largest quarterly decline since the pandemic, influenced by increased oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid regional peace negotiations. Morgan Stanley has issued a bearish outlook, suggesting potential oversupply in the global oil market.
• Cryptocurrency and Precious Metals: Bitcoin is trading near $59,500, while gold and silver prices have decreased to around $3,980 and just below $58 per ounce, respectively, as the U.S. dollar strengthens.
• China's Manufacturing PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI for June rose to 50.3, indicating continued expansion, while the services PMI increased to 50.2, and the Composite PMI climbed to 50.6, suggesting moderate improvement in the broader economy.

Upcoming Economic Events

Investors are advised to monitor key macroeconomic events, including:

• Germany's inflation report at 1 PM GMT
• U.S. JOLTS job openings data at 3 PM GMT
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 6 PM GMT
• Speeches from ECB policymakers, including Philip Lane and Piero Cipollone.

Technical Outlook for USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is trading near multi-decade highs, with the weekly RSI around 65, indicating potential for further upside. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting the export-driven economy. A decisive breakout above 163 could signal a strong bullish trend.