Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Stall as Iran Talks Ease War Premium Fears

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: February 18, 2026

Key Points

• WTI crude oil prices are consolidating after a 2% drop, reaching their lowest level since February 3.
• Diplomatic progress in U.S.-Iran talks is easing the war premium, but a deal remains elusive.
• The Eurasia Group estimates a 65% probability of U.S. military strikes on Iran by April, despite ongoing negotiations.

Market Overview

April West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are currently consolidating following a significant drop in the previous session. The market is reacting to positive feedback from ongoing diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran, which has led to some liquidation among bullish traders. The price is hovering around a critical pivot point of $62.19, indicating a balanced trade environment.

Market Sentiment

While some traders are lightening their positions due to the easing of the war premium, the overall sentiment remains cautious. The market is still above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting that the bullish trend is not entirely lost. However, the recent price action indicates that traders are wary of potential volatility as negotiations progress.

Mixed Signals from Washington and Tehran

The situation remains complex, with mixed messages from both U.S. and Iranian officials contributing to market uncertainty. The presence of a U.S. navy fleet in the Strait of Hormuz poses a potential threat to Iran, which may influence the likelihood of military action. Analysts express skepticism about the possibility of a finalized agreement, emphasizing that diplomatic momentum could falter at any moment.

Focus on Inventory Reports

As traders await further developments in the negotiations, attention is shifting towards upcoming inventory reports that could impact market direction. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to release its weekly report, followed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) data. Early estimates suggest a rise in crude oil inventories, while gasoline and distillate stocks may have decreased.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the main trend for crude oil remains upward, but momentum appears to be weakening. The current trading range is identified between $58.40 and $65.99, with the price currently at $62.19. A failure to maintain this level could lead to a test of the 200-day moving average at $60.79, while resistance is noted at $63.35 and a major trend line at $63.56.

Conclusion

The crude oil market is at a critical juncture, influenced by geopolitical developments and technical indicators. Traders are advised to remain vigilant as the situation evolves, particularly with the potential for significant price movements based on diplomatic outcomes and inventory data.