FX Futures Positioning: Summary of COT Report

Date: February 23, 2026

In the latest COT report, significant shifts in futures positioning for the US Dollar, GBP, JPY, and AUD have been observed. The data indicates a notable increase in bearish sentiment towards the US Dollar, with dollar shorts reaching a five-year extreme.

US Dollar Positioning

Futures traders have increased their net-short exposure to the US Dollar by $2.3 billion, bringing the total to -$22.8 billion, marking the most bearish stance since March 2021. Despite this, large speculators have shifted to a net-long position on the US Dollar Index for the first time since June.

GBP/USD Positioning

In the GBP/USD market, net-long exposure among large speculators has risen to a nine-week high of 42.4k contracts. However, bearish sentiment persists, and the potential for further selling pressure remains as the US Dollar may continue to strengthen.

USD/JPY Positioning

Large speculators have flipped to a net-long position in Japanese Yen futures after a five-week period of being net-short. Despite this shift, the yen futures closed lower, indicating that upside potential for USD/JPY may be limited.

AUD/USD Positioning

Confidence in the Australian Dollar is reflected in the futures market, with asset managers flipping to a net-long position for the first time since October. This comes as shorts have decreased significantly, suggesting a bullish outlook for AUD/USD.

Conclusion

The COT report highlights a complex landscape for FX traders, with diverging opinions on the US Dollar and varying positioning across major currency pairs. As traders navigate these shifts, the potential for market volatility remains high.