Market Quick Take - 9 January 2026
Market Drivers and Catalysts
- Equities: A rotation is occurring in the US market, impacting tech stocks negatively while defense and energy sectors are seeing gains. European markets are cooling after reaching record highs, and Asian markets are affected by concerns over deflation in China.
- Volatility: There is a calm surface in the market, but latent risks remain, particularly with upcoming payroll data.
- Digital Assets: Bitcoin remains steady, while Ethereum shows slight weakness. Solana and XRP are performing better, indicating selective risk appetite.
- Currencies: The Japanese Yen is weaker as the US dollar strengthens ahead of the US jobs report.
- Commodities: Gold and crude oil prices are rising due to tensions in Iran, contributing to a strong start for the BCOM index.
- Fixed Income: Yields in Japan and the US have rebounded ahead of the jobs report.
Macro Headlines
- Trump is expected to announce a successor to Fed Chair Powell this month, potentially during the Davos forum.
- Trump is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to lower housing costs ahead of the midterm elections.
- Protests in Iran are escalating, posing significant geopolitical risks and potential implications for energy markets.
- US inflation expectations have risen, with a noted decline in price forecasts for essential goods.
- China is set to approve some NVIDIA H200 purchases, allowing commercial use despite restrictions on state bodies.
- The US trade deficit has decreased significantly, with changes in tariffs affecting trade flows.
- Initial jobless claims in the US have risen slightly, indicating slow hiring trends.
- US nonfarm productivity has increased, surpassing forecasts.
Macro Calendar Highlights
Key economic data releases include:
- 1000 GMT – Eurozone November Retail Sales
- 1330 GMT – US December Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
- 1330 GMT – US October Housing Starts and Building Permits
- 1330 GMT – Canada December Employment Data
- 1500 GMT – US January University of Michigan Sentiment
Earnings Events
Upcoming earnings reports include:
- Monday: Delta Airlines
- Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup
- Wednesday: Bank of America, Wells Fargo
- Thursday: TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock
- Friday: Reliance Industries
Equities Overview
In the US, the Dow rose by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 remained flat, and the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.6%. Investors are shifting from AI hardware stocks to cyclicals, influenced by Federal Reserve policies and defense spending discussions.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 and Euro STOXX 50 both declined slightly as investors reassess rate-cut timing and geopolitical developments. Mining stocks are in focus due to potential mergers.
In Asia, the Hang Seng index led losses, while mainland China markets remained stable as traders await inflation data.
Volatility Insights
Market volatility is currently moderate, but the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report could significantly impact market expectations. Investors are hedging around this data release.
Digital Assets Overview
Digital assets are trading within a narrow range, with Bitcoin around $91,000 and Ethereum near $3,100. Institutional interest remains strong, particularly in Bitcoin.
Fixed Income Market
Japanese government bonds have seen a sell-off, while US treasury yields have slightly rebounded ahead of the jobs report.
Commodities Market
Oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical tensions in Iran, while gold prices are steady amid increased risk. The BCOM Total Return Index has shown strong gains in the first week of trading.
Currencies Overview
The US dollar is slightly stronger, with the EUR/USD pair hitting new local lows. The Japanese yen is weaker against the dollar, indicating shifts in currency dynamics.