Natural Gas Price Forecast: Compression Builds Before Next Breakout

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: July 07, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the current state of natural gas prices, highlighting a recent upward movement and the potential for future price action. Natural gas has recently reached a four-day high of $3.32, maintaining a critical trend support level while facing resistance at key price points.

Current Market Conditions

Natural gas is currently trading above the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend. However, the price remains under pressure until it surpasses the lower swing high of $3.36. A breakout above this level could lead to further gains, targeting the next resistance at $3.40 and potentially reaching the 200-day moving average at approximately $3.44.

Long-Term Outlook

The article emphasizes that maintaining the near-term uptrend could lead to a reclaiming of the 200-day moving average, which has not been surpassed since early February. A successful breakout above this long-term resistance would signal a shift in market dynamics, potentially encouraging more aggressive buying.

Key Support Levels

On the downside, the article identifies critical support levels that could define the risk of a price decline. If the price breaks below the recent higher swing low of $3.02, the 50-day moving average, currently near $3.05, would become a significant target for traders.

Range Compression and Future Volatility

The article notes the development of range compression, which is evident in the weekly chart. This pattern suggests that while current volatility is low, it may soon lead to a significant price movement. The ongoing double inside week pattern indicates that the market is consolidating, and a breakout could result in increased momentum.

Conclusion

In summary, the natural gas market is at a critical juncture, with key resistance and support levels defining its near-term trajectory. Traders are advised to monitor these levels closely as the potential for a breakout or breakdown could lead to significant price movements in the near future.