Market Analysis Summary: Oil Surges on Geopolitical Risk; Eyes on Global PMIs

Author: Martin Lam

Date: July 24, 2026

Key Takeaways

• President Trump announced potential "major military punishment" against Iran, increasing safe-haven sentiment and driving oil prices higher.
• U.S. equities faced pressure, particularly in technology stocks, as geopolitical tensions escalated.
• PMI releases across major economies are anticipated to provide insights into economic activity for July, with expectations of modest acceleration in U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs.
• Concerns over energy price volatility due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz pose challenges for U.S. and European economic resilience.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities closed lower on July 23, 2026, with the Dow down 0.97%, S&P 500 down 1.21%, and Nasdaq down 2.15%. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, while gold prices fell by 2% as Middle East conflicts drove energy prices higher, raising inflation concerns.

Brent crude oil surged over 6%, surpassing $100 per barrel for the first time since May, while WTI crude closed up 6.8%. The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted global oil supply.

Key Economic Events Scheduled for Today

• 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL
• 14:00 GB Retail Sales JUN
• 15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL
• 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL
• 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL
• 20:00 US Building Permits Final JUN
• 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL
• 22:00 US New Home Sales JUN

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1408 / 1.1422 Support: 1.1362 / 1.1348

The ECB kept rates unchanged but hinted at a potential hike in September. The dollar's rebound has pressured the EUR/USD pair.

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.3399 / 1.3460 Support: 1.3300 / 1.3250

The pound has fallen for six consecutive days, with a focus on upcoming PMI and retail sales data.

USD/JPY

Resistance: 164.29 / 164.56 Support: 163.39 / 163.11

The USD/JPY pair reached near 40-year highs as U.S. yields rose, with Japan's CPI data aligning with forecasts.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 94.97 / 97.27 Support: 89.54 / 87.20

Geopolitical tensions have driven WTI crude above $90, with further resistance expected near $95.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4081 / 4110 Support: 4017 / 3988

Gold prices retreated from recent highs, influenced by Fed rate hike expectations and dollar strength.

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,068 / 52,304 Support: 51,306 / 51,074

Equities fell due to capital expenditure concerns and geopolitical risks, with the Dow hitting late-June lows.

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 28,857 / 28,994 Support: 28,225 / 28,090

Tech stocks faced pressure, particularly following disappointing earnings from major companies.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 66,485 / 67,426 Support: 64,416 / 63,507

Bitcoin experienced a decline amid stalled legislative progress in the U.S. and rising oil prices.

Conclusion

The market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which are affecting oil prices and overall market sentiment. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming economic data releases closely, as they may provide further insights into market direction.