Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Persists Below Key Average

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: February 19, 2026

Market Overview

Gold prices are currently under short-term pressure, remaining below the 20-day moving average. A slight increase in price to $5,022 has not changed the bearish outlook, as resistance has been confirmed at the 20-day average for three consecutive days. The 50-day moving average, now at $4,688, is emerging as a critical support level.

Short-Term Resistance and Bearish Bias

The recent price action indicates that gold is facing resistance at the 20-day average, which has failed to act as support. The market is currently in a narrow range, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers. If the price pulls back to test the 50-day average, it may provide a more solid base for support, attracting buyers.

Volatility Compression After Sharp Decline

Gold experienced a significant drop of $1,195 (21.54%) over three days, leading to a period of lower volatility as the market consolidates. This compression often occurs after sharp price movements, resulting in uncertainty about the market's direction. The 20-day average is currently acting as a pivot point within this range.

Retracement Levels and Upside Potential

Gold has retraced nearly 61.8% of its previous decline, which is considered a normal retracement. If the price recovers above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $5,141, the next target could be $5,345, supported by a rising ABCD pattern projection. The 50-day average remains a crucial support level, and consolidation within this range may persist for an extended period.

Conclusion

The outlook for gold remains bearish in the short term, with critical resistance at the 20-day average and support at the 50-day average. Traders should monitor these levels closely as the market navigates through this consolidation phase.