US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Tests $99.00 Pivot
Author: Arslan Ali
Published: April 09, 2026
Key Points
- The Dollar Index (DXY) has breached its $99.50 ascending trendline and is currently testing the 200-SMA pivot at $99.00.
- The Euro (EUR/USD) is showing strength with a bullish breakout above $1.1625.
- The British Pound (GBP/USD) is consolidating within the Fibonacci retracement zone, indicating potential for continuation.
Market Overview
The US Dollar is stabilizing around recent lows after experiencing a significant drop due to geopolitical tensions. The DXY Index is currently around $99.05, having fallen nearly 1% in the previous session. This decline, while notable, is not seen as a major shift in the overall trend.
Geopolitical and Economic Factors
The recent ceasefire agreement has eased some pressure on the dollar, which had been viewed as a safe haven. However, uncertainty remains regarding the durability of this ceasefire, keeping investors cautious. Attention is now shifting towards upcoming US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's response, which will be crucial for the direction of major currency pairs.
Technical Analysis
DXY Analysis
The DXY is in a vulnerable position, having slipped below its trendline support. The recent price action shows bearish momentum, with long-bodied red candles indicating selling pressure. The key pivot level at $99.00 is critical; a break below $98.50 could lead to further declines towards $98.15.
GBP/USD Analysis
GBP/USD is trading around $1.3395, having recently broken above the $1.3360 resistance level. The pair is currently consolidating within the Fibonacci retracement zone, suggesting a healthy setup for continuation. The ascending trendline from April is providing support at $1.3330.
EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD is holding around $1.1665, having successfully broken above the resistance at $1.1625. The bullish structure is reinforced by strong buying pressure, with the price remaining above key moving averages and Fibonacci levels. Immediate resistance is at $1.1718, while support is at $1.1650.
Trade Ideas
- DXY: Sell if it drops below $98.50, targeting $98.15, with a stop loss above $99.70.
- GBP/USD: Buy on dips near $1.3360, targeting $1.3450, with a stop loss below $1.3320.
- EUR/USD: Buy above $1.1650, targeting $1.1718, with a stop loss below $1.1620.
Conclusion
The US Dollar is currently facing challenges due to geopolitical uncertainties and upcoming economic data. Traders should remain vigilant and consider technical indicators when making trading decisions in the current market environment.