Trump-Xi Summit: Five Issues to Watch and the Trading Playbook
By Kelvin Wong | 22 September 2026
Summary
On September 24, 2026, President Trump will host President Xi in Washington, with markets anticipating a positive outcome. The sentiment has been buoyed by optimistic rhetoric from both US and Chinese officials, particularly following a recent meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang. They discussed the establishment of a US-China AI dialogue, highlighting the importance of artificial intelligence in the ongoing geopolitical landscape.
Key Takeaways
- The potential extension of the trade truce is on the table, but specific tariff cuts and timelines are necessary to avoid a "sell-the-fact" scenario.
- Key factors influencing the USD/CNH, Hong Kong 33, and Nasdaq 100 include rare-earth licenses and AI-chip regulations.
- AUD/USD is positioned as a clearer trade reflecting China's growth, while the Singapore 30 offers lower-risk regional exposure.
Five Key Highlights
- Duration and Scope of the Trade Truce: The current truce expires on November 10, 2026. The focus is on whether it will be extended and if it will prevent new tariffs.
- Rare-Earth Exports and Critical-Mineral Licenses: The US seeks reliable access to Chinese rare-earth materials, which are crucial for various industries.
- AI Chips and Technology Restrictions: The outcome of the AI dialogue could significantly impact semiconductor stocks, depending on whether restrictions are eased or tightened.
- Soybeans, Boeing, and Measurable Chinese Purchases: Markets are looking for specific commitments regarding US agricultural purchases and aircraft orders.
- Geopolitical Tail Risks: Issues surrounding Taiwan and Iran could overshadow trade discussions and lead to broader confrontations.
Top Five Tradeable Assets
| Asset | Constructive Summit | Disappointing Summit | Positioning Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNH | Falls as yuan strengthens. | USD rises on renewed tariff risk. | Currently in a downtrend; watch for key resistance levels. |
| Hong Kong 33 | Gains on tariff relief. | Vulnerable to profit-taking. | Look for pullbacks to establish better positions. |
| Nasdaq 100 | Benefits if AI-chip restrictions ease. | Falls if controls tighten. | Maintain modest exposure; watch for pullbacks. |
| AUD/USD | Rises with improved China sentiment. | Falls with risk aversion. | Break above 0.7148 needed for bullish momentum. |
| Singapore 30 | Rises with improved sentiment. | Underperforms on downside. | Watch for support levels to confirm recovery. |
Conclusion
The upcoming Trump-Xi summit is pivotal for market sentiment, with several key issues at play that could influence trading strategies. Investors should closely monitor the developments and be prepared for potential volatility based on the outcomes of the discussions.