Crude Oil Trades Above $95 Ahead of Weekend Risk – WTI Technical Analysis

Market Overview

WTI Crude Oil is currently trading around the $95 mark as geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, continue to impact oil prices. The situation remains precarious as Iran has not confirmed its participation in peace talks with U.S. representatives, despite diplomatic efforts.

Geopolitical Context

The U.S. is maintaining a strong maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which has resulted in the interception of 34 tankers from Iranian ports. This blockade is part of the U.S. strategy to exert economic pressure on Iran, which has led to a significant reduction in global oil supply, estimated at a 13 million barrels per day shortfall compared to normal levels.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment has shifted negatively, with the odds of a peace deal decreasing sharply since last Friday. Traders are closely monitoring developments, as any lack of progress could lead to significant market volatility when trading resumes on Monday.

Technical Analysis

WTI Daily Chart

After a recent correction to lows of $83, WTI has bounced back but remains below the critical $100 resistance level. A breach of this level could trigger increased volatility.

Key Technical Levels

• Resistance Levels:
  • $98 to $100 (recently rejected)
  • $104 (next mini resistance)
  • $106 to $108 (June 2022 resistance)
  • $117 to $120 (larger channel top)
  • $120 to $124 (Ukraine War spike)
• Support Levels:
  • $96.82 (4H 200-period MA)
  • $93.00 - $95.00 (war support)
  • $87.00 - $90.00 (mini-support)
  • $82.80 - $84.00 (micro-support)
  • $78.00 - $80.00 (2025 highs key support)
  • $69.00 - $70.00 (final war support)

Short-Term Outlook

As the weekend approaches, traders should prepare for potential high-volatility gaps on Monday. A break above $100 could lead to a rally towards $104, while a rejection below $97 may see prices retest the $93 level. Caution is advised due to the binary risks involved in trading during this period.