Natural Gas Price Forecast Summary
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: February 18, 2026
Current Market Overview
Natural gas prices are currently testing a key support level near $3.01 after experiencing a corrective low of $2.92. The market is showing signs of potential upside if demand improves and the trendline holds. Despite a long-term bearish signal triggered by the recent decline, the area around $3.01 is identified as a potentially strong support zone due to the presence of a long-term uptrend line and a prior swing low.
Short-Term Patterns
A small falling bull wedge pattern has formed in the natural gas market throughout February. The breakout level is identified at the lower swing high of $3.32. A recovery above the top boundary line of this pattern would signal an earlier breakout. For a more sustained rally, natural gas must rise above the lower swing high at $3.66, with the 200-day moving average at $3.59 acting as a resistance point.
Long-Term Perspective
Analyzing the larger pattern reveals a significant falling wedge that triggered an upside breakout in late October. The first pullback after this breakout found support at the $3.01 swing low, leading to a rally that peaked at $7.44. This indicates a successful test of support near the falling trendline at the top of the wedge. The current decline may also find support at or above this trendline, reinforcing its role as a support level after previously acting as resistance during the wedge consolidation.
Risks and Considerations
A daily close below the lower uptrend line would be considered bearish, but the market's next moves will be crucial. A quick recovery above the trendline, accompanied by signs of strength, could negate the bearish implications of the trendline break. Conversely, a decline below the $3.01 swing low would confirm a bearish outlook, but this has not yet occurred.
Impact on Future Rally
The recent drop below the trendline raises concerns about the sustainability of any subsequent rally. While a successful trendline break may only slightly alter the angle of ascent, it could still maintain an upward bias. Historical patterns suggest that adjustments to trendlines can occur, as seen in the bearish correction that ended at $2.62 in August.
Conclusion
In summary, the natural gas market is at a critical juncture, with key support levels being tested. The formation of a falling wedge and the potential for a recovery above critical resistance levels could signal a shift in market dynamics, contingent on improvements in demand and market sentiment.