Bitcoin Price Analysis: 5 BTC Charts to Not Miss This May
By Yashu Gola | Published: April 29, 2026
Key Insights
- Bitcoin has increased by approximately 13% in April but is still about 40% below its all-time high of $126,200.
- Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin typically declines during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision weeks, averaging an 11% drop.
- In US midterm election years, Bitcoin has historically fallen around 15% in May, suggesting a potential target near $65,500.
Current Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) is set to close April positively, with a 13% rise as traders react to favorable developments, including a ceasefire between the US and Iran and increased buying activity. However, it remains significantly below its peak from October 2025.
FOMC Trends and Potential Price Movements
Data shows that Bitcoin has declined in 8 of the last 9 FOMC decision weeks, with an average drop of 11%. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could fall to the $68,000–$70,000 range in May.
Historical Performance in Midterm Years
In previous midterm election years, Bitcoin has experienced an average decline of 15% in May. For instance, in 2018, it fell by 18%, and in 2022, it dropped by 15-16%. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin may target around $65,500 this May.
Technical Analysis and Price Channels
Bitcoin is currently trading within a rising channel, but momentum is waning. A breakdown below the lower trendline could lead to a decline towards $69,000. Conversely, a rebound could push prices towards the upper trendline.
Shark Accumulation and Market Sentiment
Mid-sized holders, referred to as "sharks," are increasing their Bitcoin holdings, which have reached approximately 3.5 million BTC. However, the derivatives market shows cautious sentiment, indicating that while spot demand is rising, aggressive upside positioning is lacking.
Liquidity and Market Outlook
The liquidity situation for Bitcoin has improved, with Tether's market cap showing signs of recovery. This could provide support for Bitcoin prices, especially if the new USDT supply translates into spot demand, potentially challenging resistance levels in May.