Market Analysis Summary: Middle East Tensions Ease Ahead of Super Central Bank Week
Author: Martin Lam
Date: July 27, 2026
Key Takeaways
- President Trump has paused airstrikes on Iran, while Iran has halted retaliatory actions but remains cautious.
- Markets are observing the potential restart of stalled negotiations, leading to a slight easing of safe-haven sentiment.
- This week features significant events including meetings from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ, along with key U.S. GDP and inflation reports.
- Today's highlight includes U.S. June durable goods orders, expected to rebound to +1.6% MoM from a prior -4.5%.
Global Market Review
U.S. equities closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.4% (marking its third consecutive weekly decline), the S&P 500 down 0.6% (second consecutive weekly decline), and the Nasdaq down 2% (also second consecutive weekly decline). The dollar saw its largest weekly gain since mid-June, while spot gold closed at $4,052.56/oz, up 0.13% for the week.
Reports indicate that other nations are pushing to restart stalled U.S.–Iran talks, which contributed to oil futures retreating from multi-week highs, falling more than 2% on Friday and opening sharply lower on Monday.
Key Events Today
- 16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate JUL
- 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM JUN
- 22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JUL
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1422 / 1.1436
Support: 1.1380 / 1.1362
Mixed Eurozone PMI data had little impact on Friday. EUR/USD traded below 1.1400, with focus on Middle East developments. After two days of decline, EUR/USD opened higher on Monday, testing resistance at the 10-day MA.
Bias: Mild rebound
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3399 / 1.3460
Support: 1.3300 / 1.3250
Sterling held above 1.3300 on Friday, ending its losing streak, supported by UK retail sales and PMI data. Extended rebound Monday, focusing on 10-day MA resistance near 1.3400.
Bias: Mild rebound
USD/JPY
Resistance: 164.00 / 164.29
Support: 163.39 / 163.11
The Yen hovered near 40-year lows, recording its largest weekly drop in two months. Despite a lower open, the pair remains in the high range.
Bias: High-level consolidation
US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)
Resistance: 90.38 / 93.44
Support: 83.37 / 80.26
Hopes for renewed U.S.–Iran talks pressured oil, ending a five-day rally. Prices opened sharply lower on Monday, down more than 5%.
Bias: High-level correction
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4142 / 4173
Support: 4073 / 4043
Gold extended its rebound above $4,100 on Monday, holding above the 10-day MA, indicating room for a short-term rebound.
Bias: Short-term rebound
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 52,304 / 52,539
Support: 51,601 / 51,306
The Dow rebounded towards 52,000 as markets weighed prospects of renewed U.S.–Iran talks.
Bias: Low-level rebound
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 28,681 / 28,857
Support: 28,225 / 28,090
The Nasdaq approached the 28,000 support level, with improvement in geopolitics potentially providing room for a rebound.
Bias: Low-level consolidation
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 66,485 / 67,426
Support: 64,416 / 63,507
Bitcoin neared $64,000 on Sunday, supported by pre-Fed positioning and options activity betting on a move towards $72,000 by month-end.
Bias: Mild rebound
Conclusion
The easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a mixed performance in global markets, with significant attention on upcoming central bank meetings and economic data releases. Traders should remain vigilant as volatility is expected in the coming week.