Market Analysis Summary: Oil and Natural Gas Forecast

Date: June 25, 2026

Key Highlights

• The US-Iran ceasefire has been in effect for over eleven weeks, leading to a gradual resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• WTI crude oil prices have fallen to $69.36, breaking below a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating strong bearish momentum.
• Brent crude oil is holding at $72.89, testing the lower boundary of a descending channel with neutral-to-bullish momentum.
• Natural gas futures are trading at $3.244, maintaining a bullish trend within an ascending channel.

Oil Market Overview

The oil market is currently balancing expanding supply with steady demand. OPEC+ has maintained discipline in production, while non-OPEC supplies, particularly from the U.S., are increasing. Global demand remains robust, supported by high refinery runs in major consumption areas and seasonal driving in the northern hemisphere. Recent weeks have seen U.S. crude stocks remain flat, with working stockpiles at operating hubs near minimum levels, indicating firm downstream demand as the economy grows.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural gas fundamentals are characterized by record-high production levels in the U.S. Driven by associated production and new gas plays, U.S. LNG plants are operating at maximum capacity, supplying strong volumes internationally. Gas storage levels are accumulating steadily, remaining well above the five-year average, while consumption varies with weather conditions.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas (NG) Analysis

Natural gas is currently priced at $3.244, showing bullish candlestick patterns above the 50-period moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 52, indicating a neutral to bullish setup. A trade idea suggests buying at $3.244, targeting $3.321, with a stop-loss at $3.12.

WTI Crude Oil Analysis

WTI crude oil has dropped to $69.36, with bearish continuation evident after breaking triangle support. The RSI is below 40, indicating strong selling momentum. A trade idea suggests selling at $69.36, targeting $63.01, with a stop-loss at $72.00.

Brent Crude Oil Analysis

Brent crude oil is at $72.89, with bullish rejection candlesticks indicating buyer interest. The RSI is around 50, suggesting a neutral setup. A trade idea suggests buying at $72.89, targeting $82.44, with a stop-loss at $71.00.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics for oil and natural gas reflect a complex interplay of supply and demand factors, with technical indicators suggesting varied trading strategies. Investors should remain vigilant and consider these insights when making trading decisions.