EUR/USD and Crude Oil Forecast: Will NFP Matter?
By Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Date: March 6, 2026
Overview
The article discusses the anticipated impact of the upcoming US jobs report on the EUR/USD currency pair and crude oil prices, amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran. The prevailing sentiment suggests a bearish outlook for the EUR/USD, regardless of the jobs data outcome.
US Jobs Report Expectations
The US jobs report is set to be released at 13:30 London time, with expectations of a headline payroll increase of approximately 58,000, a notable decrease from the previous month's 130,000. The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%, slightly lower than prior figures. The article raises the question of whether this report will significantly influence market movements, given the current focus on geopolitical issues affecting oil prices.
Crude Oil Price Dynamics
Crude oil prices have surged, recently surpassing $88 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The article notes that Brent crude could approach $90, with the ongoing conflict contributing to this upward trend. The rising oil prices are impacting European stock markets, which are sensitive to energy costs, as many European economies rely heavily on imported energy. This situation is likely to hinder growth, affecting corporate margins and consumer spending.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair has faced challenges, with the energy situation playing a crucial role in its performance. The currency pair is currently testing a significant support level around 1.1578, the January low. A decisive break below this level could lead to further declines, targeting the 1.1500 area and potentially lower levels around 1.1400. The article concludes that the bearish bias for the euro is likely to persist as long as oil prices continue to rise, even if the US jobs report shows weaker results.