Q1 2026 Earnings Season: What Traders Are Watching
Published on April 14, 2026
Overview
The Q1 2026 earnings season is unfolding amidst a complex macroeconomic backdrop. The S&P 500 is nearing its pre-war highs, while the Nasdaq has achieved nine consecutive daily gains. Notably, Goldman Sachs reported one of its strongest quarters, indicating corporate resilience. However, this positive performance occurs against a backdrop of rising oil prices above $100, a re-acceleration of headline inflation to 3.3% in March, and a Federal Reserve that is currently on hold. The key question for traders is whether company guidance can withstand these unexpected conditions.
Reporting Schedule
The earnings season follows a standard schedule, with banks reporting first, followed by technology and semiconductor companies, and concluding with major tech firms. Key dates include:
- April 13: Goldman Sachs
- April 14: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup
- April 15: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley
- April 16: TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo
- ~April 20: Tesla
- ~April 28-30: Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple
- Late April: Alphabet
- Late May: Nvidia (fiscal Q1)
Financials: Bank Results
Goldman Sachs reported earnings per share of $17.55, exceeding expectations, with a revenue of $17.23 billion. Despite strong metrics, the stock fell, highlighting that guidance and macro context are more critical than the earnings beat itself. The upcoming reports from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are particularly significant, as JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon will provide insights into consumer health and credit conditions, which are vital indicators of the economic outlook.
Technology and Semiconductors: AI Capex
TSMC's earnings report is crucial for technology traders, especially regarding its capital expenditure plans for AI infrastructure. Analysts predict significant spending from major US tech firms on AI, which could impact TSMC's demand outlook. Netflix's performance will also be closely watched, particularly its ad-supported tier, which is becoming a significant revenue driver.
Cross-Asset Context
The earnings season is influenced by broader market conditions. The dollar index remains strong due to safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, while the 10-year Treasury yield is a critical variable affecting growth and inflation expectations. Strong guidance from big tech could lead to higher yields and compress growth equity valuations, while cautious guidance could signal a slowdown.
Unresolved Issues
Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth of around 13% for Q1 2026, with potential for higher actual growth if early trends continue. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures create uncertainty, particularly for consumer-facing companies. The upcoming reports from Tesla and major tech firms will be pivotal in determining the sustainability of the current equity rally.