Market Quick Take - 26 March 2026

Market Drivers and Catalysts

• Equities: Stocks rose in the US, climbed harder in Europe, and rallied across Asia as ceasefire hopes briefly cooled oil fears.
• Volatility: VIX easing, geopolitics dominant, oil-inflation link.
• Digital Assets: Crypto softer, institutional demand cautious.
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields firm across the curve; short-dated JGBs hit multi-decade highs on rate hike speculation.
• Currencies: USDJPY on intervention watch near 160.
• Commodities: Oil rise, gold slumps as war escalation and disruption risks dominate.

Macro Events

The White House reports ongoing peace talks with Iran, despite ordering additional troops to the region, raising fears of a potential ground invasion. Tehran has rejected US overtures, demanding guarantees against future attacks, reparations for war damages, and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

The US current account deficit narrowed to $190.7 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest since Q1 2021, with a goods deficit decrease and a primary income balance surplus of $23.9 billion. The deficit was 2.4% of GDP, down from 3.1% in Q3.

US import prices rose 1.3% in February 2026, the highest since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% increase in fuel prices.

UK's annual inflation remained at 3% in February 2026, with a monthly CPI rise of 0.4%.

Macro Calendar Highlights

• 0900 – Norges Bank Rate Decision
• 0930 – UK BoE Deputy Governor Breeden to speak
• 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• 1300 – South Africa Reserve Bank Rate Announcement
• 1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year Notes
• 1900 – Mexico Central Bank Rate Announcement
• 2230 – US Fed’s Miran to speak on Fed Balance Sheet
• 0001 – UK Mar. GfK Consumer Confidence

Earnings This Week

Today: H&M Hennes & Mauritz, Hapag-Lloyd, Next PLC

Friday: Carnival

Equities

USA

The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,591.90, the Dow gained 0.7% to 46,429.49, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.8% to 21,929.83, driven by a U.S. peace proposal to Iran and lower oil prices.

Europe

The STOXX 600 rose 1.4% to 586.73, with travel and banks benefiting from falling oil and gas prices.

Asia

Asia rallied, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 2.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 1.1%, although some gains were given back as Tehran rejected the U.S. plan.

Volatility

Volatility is easing but remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with the VIX closing at 25.33. Options pricing suggests continued potential for larger daily swings.

Digital Assets

Crypto is softer, with Bitcoin around $70,076 and Ether near $2,121. Institutional demand remains cautious, with mixed signals in ETF flows.

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields are firmer across the curve, with the 2-year yield at 3.92% and the 10-year at 4.36%. Japanese government bond yields are at multi-decade highs.

Commodities

Oil prices rose amid conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran, while gold prices fell as it behaves more like a risk asset amid market stress.

Currencies

The US dollar is marginally firmer, with EURUSD trading at 1.1560. USDJPY is near 160, raising intervention concerns.