Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook Turns Cautious After US Data Weakens Rate Cut Hopes

Published: January 11, 2026

Author: Bob Mason

Key Points

• Strong US Services PMI and jobs data reduce expectations for a March Fed rate cut, pushing Bitcoin (BTC) back toward $90,000.
• US BTC-spot ETFs experienced $680.9 million in weekly outflows, reversing previous inflows.
• Despite the recent pullback, improving sentiment and legislative progress support a bullish medium-term outlook for BTC.

Market Overview

Recent US economic indicators have shown a resurgence in economic momentum, particularly in the services sector, which has impacted Bitcoin's price. The US jobs report indicated a decrease in unemployment from 4.5% in November to 4.4% in December, alongside a rise in average hourly earnings, which increased from 3.6% to 3.8% year-on-year. This data has diminished hopes for lower borrowing costs, which typically support asset prices like Bitcoin.

US Economic Indicators Impacting BTC

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 52.9 in December to 54.0 in January, reflecting a positive outlook on consumer spending, which constitutes about 60% of the US GDP. Bitcoin reached a high of $92,011 on January 9 before retreating to $90,000 as market sentiment shifted regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. The likelihood of a March rate cut dropped significantly, from 51.1% to 28.7% within a week.

ETF Outflows and Market Sentiment

Demand for BTC-spot ETFs has waned, with net outflows of $680.9 million reported for the week ending January 9, reversing the previous week's inflows. Notable outflows included $481.2 million from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and $171.8 million from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Despite these outflows, some ETF issuers, like iShares Bitcoin Trust, reported inflows, indicating mixed market sentiment.

Technical Analysis and Price Outlook

Technically, Bitcoin's recent price action has left it below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a bearish bias. However, a break above the 50-day EMA could signal a bullish trend reversal, with potential targets of $100,000 and $115,000 in the medium term. Conversely, a drop below $90,000 could expose lower support levels around $80,523.

Conclusion

The short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains cautiously bullish, supported by positive fundamentals despite bearish technical indicators. Key upcoming events, such as the US CPI report on January 13, will be crucial in shaping market sentiment. A softer inflation report could bolster bullish sentiment, while ongoing legislative developments, including the Market Structure Bill, may further enhance the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin.

Future Considerations

Investors should monitor macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators closely as they navigate the evolving landscape of Bitcoin and broader market conditions.