NVIDIA (NVDA): Probing 195.95 Bullish Upside Trigger as Earnings Loom Today

Key Takeaways

• NVIDIA Diverges from Magnificent 7 Weakness: While most mega-cap tech stocks, particularly Microsoft, have underperformed in 2026, NVIDIA has shown resilience with a modest year-to-date gain, making its upcoming earnings a critical indicator for global AI demand.
• Bullish Consolidation Above Key Support: NVIDIA is currently in a three-month sideways trading range but remains above its 200-day moving average. Positive technical indicators suggest a potential trend reversal.
• 195.95 Breakout Level in Focus: A decisive move above 195.95 could initiate a medium-term uptrend, targeting a retest of 212.19. Conversely, a drop below 169.55 would invalidate the bullish outlook.

Market Context

The "Magnificent 7" stocks, which include major tech companies, have struggled since the beginning of 2026, with Microsoft leading the decline at a 19.6% loss year-to-date. In contrast, NVIDIA has managed a 3.4% gain, positioning itself as a key player in the AI sector ahead of its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report.

Concerns have arisen regarding the competitive edge of SaaS firms due to new AI tools from Google and Anthropic, further emphasizing the importance of NVIDIA's performance in the current market landscape.

Technical Analysis

NVIDIA's price action has been characterized by a three-month sideways range, maintaining support above the 200-day moving average. Two significant technical developments have emerged:

1. Relative Strength Improvement: The volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of NVIDIA against the S&P 500 has formed a "higher low" and crossed above its zero line, indicating a potential shift in performance dynamics.
2. MACD Bullish Crossover: The daily MACD indicator has shown a bullish crossover, suggesting a possible transition from a sideways trend to an upward trajectory.

Key levels to watch include:

• Support: 169.55 (close to the 200-day moving average)
• Resistance: 195.95 (breakout level), with potential targets at 212.19, 234.10, and 247.15.

A break below 169.55 would negate the bullish scenario, exposing further support levels at 153.00 and 135.35/129.90.