Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Fails as Reversal Builds
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: March 18, 2026
Overview
The article discusses the current state of natural gas prices, highlighting a recent test of key support levels and the potential for a reversal in price trends. The analysis focuses on technical indicators and market structure to predict future movements in natural gas prices.
Key Points
- Support Test: Natural gas prices dipped below the 20-day moving average, reaching a low of $2.90 before bouncing back. A bullish hammer candlestick pattern was formed, indicating a potential reversal.
- Consolidation Range: The price is expected to consolidate above the trendline support at $2.81 and below a downtrend line, with resistance identified at $3.49.
- Market Structure Shift: A recent break of a higher swing low suggests an increasing risk of a bearish trend reversal, despite the potential for upward movement if the downtrend line is broken.
- 200-Day Moving Average: The 200-day moving average is acting as a dynamic resistance level, currently at $3.55, which could cap any upside attempts while prices remain below it.
- Future Price Movements: A rally above $3.05 would signal a bullish reversal, while a recovery above $3.29 could lead to testing higher resistance levels at $3.45 and $3.49.
Conclusion
The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels in the natural gas market. The current price action suggests a potential for consolidation and a reversal, but caution is advised due to the shifting market structure and the influence of the 200-day moving average.
About the Author
Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.