Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis: December 2025
Author: Bob Mason
Published: December 7, 2025
Key Highlights
- Bitcoin (BTC) is facing weekly losses due to rising Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields and hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
- US BTC-spot ETF outflows reached $87.7 million, reversing previous inflows and negatively impacting short-term demand for Bitcoin.
- A dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut and optimistic projections for 2026 could potentially lead to a BTC breakout towards the $100,000 mark.
Current Market Situation
Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its value, having slid to a low of $83,762 on December 1, before briefly recovering to a high of $99,000. The recent downturn is attributed to a hawkish stance from the BoJ, which has led to increased JGB yields, raising concerns about a potential yen carry trade unwind.
ETF Flow Trends
The US BTC-spot ETF market has reported significant outflows, with a total of $87.7 million in net outflows for the week ending December 5. This marks a reversal from the previous week's inflows of $70.2 million. Key trends include:
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw outflows of $77.8 million.
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported outflows of $49.1 million.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had inflows of $62 million.
Overall, five issuers reported outflows while three had inflows, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market.
Outlook for the Fed Rate Decision
The Fed is set to announce its final interest rate decision of 2025 on December 10. A 25-basis-point cut is anticipated, which could enhance demand for risk assets like Bitcoin. Current market sentiment suggests an 86.2% probability of a rate cut, with further cuts expected in the first half of 2026.
However, concerns about persistent US inflation and a strong labor market create uncertainty regarding the Fed's future policy direction. The upcoming FOMC Economic Projections will be crucial in shaping market expectations.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin's recent price action has left it below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish trend. A break above the $94,447 resistance level could signal a potential recovery towards the $100,000 psychological barrier. Conversely, a drop below $80,000 could invalidate the medium-term bullish outlook.
Risks and Considerations
While a dovish Fed and positive ETF inflows could support Bitcoin's price, risks remain. A hawkish stance from the Fed or continued ETF outflows could lead to further declines. The market is also sensitive to macroeconomic developments, particularly related to JGB yields and the BoJ's monetary policy.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin's short to medium-term outlook is heavily influenced by upcoming Fed decisions, ETF flow trends, and macroeconomic factors. Investors should remain vigilant and monitor these developments closely as they could significantly impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.