Jet Fuel Crisis in European Aviation — What It Really Means for the Sector and Passengers

Overview

The European aviation sector is facing a significant crisis due to a jet fuel supply shortage, which threatens to disrupt the upcoming summer travel season. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global jet fuel supplies, has been largely closed since late February due to ongoing armed conflict in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency has warned that Europe could deplete its jet fuel inventories within six weeks if the situation does not improve.

Fuel Inventory Depletion Scenarios

Three scenarios have been outlined regarding the depletion of jet fuel inventories in Europe, with the worst-case scenario predicting critical levels within 8-9 weeks. The current geopolitical instability has created a precarious situation for airlines reliant on these supplies.

Hedging Strategies Among Airlines

Airlines have varying levels of fuel hedging, which provides some protection against price volatility. The hedging levels for 2026 are as follows:

• Ryanair: 80% (high buffer)
• Lufthansa: 77%
• EasyJet: ~70%
• IAG (British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus): 62%
• Wizz Air: 55% (very low buffer)

Wizz Air, with the lowest hedging level, is particularly vulnerable to operational losses as fuel prices rise. However, hedging does not guarantee physical availability of fuel, which poses a significant risk if supplies run out.

Price Dynamics

Jet fuel prices have surged, doubling since the onset of the conflict, while crude oil prices have only increased by about one-third. This discrepancy highlights a structural issue in Europe’s refining capacity, as many refineries have been closed or scaled back in recent years. The crisis has revealed Europe’s increasing dependence on imported refined products, which is unlikely to change even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Operational Challenges and Route Adjustments

In response to the crisis, European airlines have begun cutting services for April and May, with some shifting planned services from the second quarter to the third, hoping for an improvement in conditions. This strategy poses risks, as airlines may face increased demand without the ability to meet it if the situation does not stabilize.

Additionally, rerouting flights around closed airspace adds significant time and fuel costs, further complicating operational logistics and reducing effective capacity by 10-15% on affected routes.

Implications for Passengers

For travelers, the implications of the jet fuel crisis extend beyond ticket prices. Passengers may face sudden fuel surcharges, potential flight cancellations, and a decline in service quality as airlines attempt to manage rising costs. Higher fares and reduced network capacity during the peak summer season are becoming increasingly likely.

Conclusion

The key question for the coming weeks is whether the situation in the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes before July. If it does not, European aviation could experience its most challenging summer since the pandemic, driven not by a lack of demand but by the inability to meet it due to fuel shortages.