EUR/USD's Next Move: Hot Inflation to 1.1785 or Cooling Jobs to 1.2000?
By Zain Vawda | February 13, 2026
Market Overview
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently experiencing a period of tight consolidation, marking its fourth consecutive day of limited movement. Traders are adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach as they anticipate critical macroeconomic data from the United States, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Current Market Conditions
After reaching a weekly high near 1.1928, the pair has drifted lower, trading in the range of 1.1850 to 1.1870. Despite a series of European data releases, including a 0.2% increase in employment in the Euro Area, the EUR/USD has remained stagnant. This employment growth, which marks the 19th consecutive period of job increases in the Eurozone, has not significantly impacted the currency pair's movement.
US CPI Data Impact
The upcoming US CPI data is expected to play a crucial role in determining the direction of the EUR/USD pair. Analysts forecast a slight slowdown in inflation, with the following consensus estimates:
- Headline Inflation: 2.5% YoY (down from 2.7%)
- Core Inflation: 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6%)
Market sentiment has been affected by concerns regarding the impact of Artificial Intelligence on white-collar jobs, contributing to a risk-off mood that has strengthened the US Dollar and applied downward pressure on the Euro.
Future Outlook
The future trajectory of the EUR/USD will hinge on two main factors:
1. Inflation Realities
If the US CPI data comes in higher than expected, it could reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, potentially pushing the EUR/USD down to the 1.1785 support level.
2. Labor Market Strength
While January's Nonfarm Payrolls showed strength, rising jobless claims suggest underlying weaknesses. Any signs of a cooling labor market could weaken the Dollar, allowing the Euro to retest the psychological barrier at 1.2000.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD is on a four-day losing streak after peaking above the 1.1900 level. As long as the pair remains above the swing low at 1.1769, bullish momentum is maintained. The 14-period RSI is also above 50, indicating bullish sentiment. However, a break below this level could lead to further declines, with key support areas at 1.1700 and the 100-day moving average at 1.1682.