Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Breakdown of Symmetric Triangle Continues

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: June 11, 2026

Summary

The article discusses the recent movements in crude oil prices, highlighting a significant bearish trend following a breakdown from a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. On Thursday, crude oil prices fell to a low of $86.97, confirming this breakdown which initially began on Tuesday. The price action indicates emerging downside risks as it has breached key moving averages and support levels.

Key Observations

• Crude oil experienced a bounce from the 100-day moving average earlier in the week, reaching a high of $94.98 before reversing direction.
• A daily close below Tuesday's low of $86.97 would confirm a bearish progression, with Thursday's trading generating a bearish outside day, suggesting further downside potential.

Support and Resistance Levels

The article outlines several critical support and resistance levels:

• Initial support is identified at a rising trendline and the April swing low of $81.94.
• Further downside targets include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone at $79.65 and a prior swing low from March at $76.83.
• The 200-day moving average, currently at $73.98, is also highlighted as a potential support level that has not been tested since its reclaim in February.

Market Context

The broader market context suggests that a deeper pullback in crude oil prices could set the stage for a future bullish move, particularly following the breakout from a long-term bullish wedge pattern. The article emphasizes that the 200-week moving average at $75.51 aligns closely with the March swing low, reinforcing this area as a significant support zone.

Outlook

Given the renewed bearish outlook, any price recoveries are expected to face resistance, particularly near the 10-day moving average at approximately $92.96 and Thursday's high. The article concludes that traders should remain cautious as the market navigates these critical levels.

Author's Background

Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having served as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.