Gold Price Analysis Summary

Author: James Hyerczyk

Date: February 18, 2026

Key Insights

• Gold has rejected a significant resistance level at $5002, with current targets set towards the 50-day moving average at $4672.
• Long-term bullish investors are accumulating gold but prefer to buy at their own price rather than chasing market offers.
• The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 50.2% probability of a rate cut in June, influencing gold's consolidation phase.

Current Market Analysis

As of the latest trading session, spot gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after rejecting a key 50% level at $5002.31. The market recently hit a two-week low at $4842.60 before a slight recovery. Analysts expect selling pressure to continue towards a support cluster between $4760.87 and $4744.34, with a primary target at the 50-day moving average of $4672.09.

Investor Behavior

Long-term bullish investors are likely to accumulate gold during this consolidation phase, preferring to place bids at their desired price points rather than taking current offers. This suggests a cautious approach among traders, indicating that a significant breakout may take time, potentially lasting several months.

Potential Catalysts

The upcoming June Federal Reserve meeting, expected to be chaired by Kevin Warsh, could serve as a catalyst for market movement. The Fed will have additional labor market and inflation data to consider before making decisions on interest rates. Currently, the FedWatch Tool shows a 92.1% chance of rates remaining unchanged in March, with a 50.2% chance of a 25-basis point cut in June.

Impact of the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is also in a consolidation phase, which is affecting gold prices. A breakout above the 200-day moving average at 98.455 could lead to a decline in gold prices, potentially pushing them towards the 50-day moving average at $4672.09 or even lower.

Conclusion

In summary, gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with traders focusing on value accumulation rather than aggressive buying. The 50-day moving average serves as a critical support level. The market's direction may hinge on upcoming Fed decisions and movements in the U.S. dollar, with patience required as the accumulation phase could extend for months.

Author Background

James Hyerczyk is a seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement.