S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: US Stocks Forecast Hinges on CPI and Iran Risks

Author: James Hyerczyk

Published: June 10, 2026

Key Points

• US stock futures declined as tensions with Iran escalated, impacting oil prices ahead of a crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
• Economists predict a CPI inflation rate of 4.2%, which could influence Federal Reserve expectations and stock market performance.
• A higher-than-expected CPI reading, coupled with rising oil prices, may exacerbate market sell-offs.

Market Overview

On the morning of June 10, 2026, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.43%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 0.71%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 185 points, a decline of 0.36%. This downturn followed US military strikes against Iran, which were described as self-defense after Iran allegedly downed a US Army Apache helicopter. The ceasefire that had previously stabilized crude oil prices was effectively over, leading to a 1% increase in West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, which traded near $89 per barrel.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report

The CPI report is scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, with expectations of a 4.2% annual inflation rate and a 0.5% monthly increase. This report is considered the most significant data release of the week, especially in light of the recent military escalation.

Technical Analysis

S&P 500 Index

The daily swing chart for the June E-mini S&P 500 Index indicated a downward trend after sellers breached the 7354.25 level. The market subsequently tested the 50-day moving average at 7247.25 before rebounding. This price action suggests long liquidation, indicating that few professionals sold during the downturn.

Key resistance levels to watch are between 7439.75 and 7485.25. If new shorts enter the market at this level, it could lead to a bearish secondary lower top, potentially driving the index down further. If the 50-day moving average fails to hold, a more significant decline could occur, targeting the support cluster between 6992.75 and 6841.75.

Nasdaq 100 Index

Similarly, the June E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index also shifted to a downward trend after breaking below the last swing bottom at 28663.00. The index fell to 28227.75 before bouncing back. The 50-day moving average at 27918.72 is now a critical level to monitor, along with the major retracement zone between 26884.75 and 25958.75.

For the Nasdaq to regain upward momentum, it must surpass the resistance zone of 29517.75 to 29822.25. Failure to do so could lead to further declines.

Geopolitical Context

The recent US strikes against Iran have heightened market volatility. President Trump accused Iran of downing the Apache helicopter, prompting military action. The ceasefire that had previously calmed crude oil prices is now over, leading to a re-evaluation of oil prices and inflation expectations.

Asian markets reacted negatively, with South Korea's Kospi dropping 4.52%, Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 1.89%, and China's CSI 300 losing 1.11%. The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with significant losses in major companies like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.

Conclusion

The upcoming CPI report and the geopolitical situation with Iran are the primary factors influencing market sentiment. A hot CPI reading combined with rising oil prices could lead to further declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, while a softer CPI could provide some relief. Traders should closely monitor these developments as they unfold.